Gallup: McCain Gaining for 2nd Straight Day

The daily Gallup presidential tracking poll shows McCain’s for the 2nd consecutive day.  The past couple of days has definitely been trending towards McCain.  Are Obama’s dangerous associations with the likes of Bill Ayers starting to resonate with the American people? The poll now shows McCain trailing Obama by 9 points.  Just two days ago the poll had Obama up by 11 over McCain.  Again, something to consider when analyzing these polls is something called the “Bradley effect“.

Click here to view this poll.


About Will Hucks

I am a systems analyst and do java development here in Jacksonville Florida.
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2 Responses to Gallup: McCain Gaining for 2nd Straight Day

  1. krissmith777 says:

    Gallup is a good polling organization, but my beef with it is that is polls “registered voters.”

    The problem with this is many “registered voters” do not vote. In 2004, as many as 45% of them stayed home. Polls like Zogby and Rassmussen do “likely voters,” — that is, those MOST likely to go to the polls. It’s much tighter in those polls, though Obama is still ahead.

    Also, polls that do “registered voters” now have results that are all different from eachother, though the final result is the same. The FOX NEWS poll has Obama ahead by 7% among “Registered voters.” When I compared them, a red flag when up in my head: “None of them are trustworthy.”

  2. javabeanwill says:

    krissmith777, I agree with your assessment of how the different polling services work. It’s true that Zogby and Rassmussen tend to be more accurate due to the fact that they do poll “likey” voters instead of “registered voters” alone.

    One thing to take a look at when available is the internals of their polling data. Too often they tend to poll any where between 10% to 20% more democrats than republicans. Also, it’s hard to determine how much if any the “Bradley effect” has had on the current polling data.

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